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The End Of Growth For U.S. Shale

1. Exxon’s sharp CAPEX cuts

- ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) announced plans to cut its CAPEX down to $20-$25 billion annually, lopping off $10 billion from what the company said in March at the onset of the pandemic.

- In terms of spending growth, the new outlook amounts to a contraction next year and a very modest increase in spending thereafter.

- The spending plan amounts to a new strategy for the oil major, which had been stubbornly sticking to aggressive growth plans despite strategy overhauls taking place at some of its top competitors.

- Spending across seven large independent oil companies and six national oil companies will drop by $23.8 billion this year and by another $6.77 billion next year, according to Bloomberg.

- Translating those cuts to production levels, output could be 9 mb/d lower in 2025 than otherwise would have been the case.

2. Peak in ICE vehicles already reached?

- The possibility that the world has passed peak oil demand has become a mainstream argument, even if it isn’t the consensus. Among others, BP (NYSE: BP) argues that we are past the peak.

- One of the main reasons is that we are already likely passed the peak for the internal-combustion engine.

- Car sales fell sharply this year, but sales of EVs held up better. Volkswagen and Daimler each saw record declines in auto sales, but their EV sales doubled.

- Next year, automakers will release 35 new all-electric models.

-…





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