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The Battle For Libya’s Oil Heats Up

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

- The battle for Libya is threatening to turn into direct clashes between the Turkish and Egyptian militaries, now that Turkey has categorically rejected Egypt’s ceasefire deal. This rejection was followed this week by the Egyptian Army’s preparations for a military maneuver near its border with Libya - also a direct response to Turkish naval exercises in the Mediterranean. Haftar is still playing cat-and-mouse with the National Oil Company (NOC), in the meantime - unwilling to lose any ounce of leverage as negotiations continue. On July 7th, the NOC noted that it was ready to lift the force majeure at the Es Sider port and allow a tanker to load crude from storage. However, when they attempted to load on July 8th, the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) would not allow the tanker to enter the port. The NOC now says that Libyan oil production will decline to 650,000 b/d in 2022, down by half from the start of this year, “in the absence of an immediate restart of oil production and because of the state’s failure to provide the requested budgets to address the many challenges resulting from the blockade”.

- At the same time, the U.S. role in Libya remains undetermined at best. Under lobbying pressure from Haftar’s allies the UAE and Egypt, as well as pressure on the other side from Turkey and Qatar - for Washington, this is a geopolitical landmine. Supporting Haftar means siding with Russia against…





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