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Editorial Dept

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Should You Buy Into This Oil Rally?

I don’t want to sound like I’m whining here, but my job is pretty difficult right now. I get paid to watch markets and give my opinion on them, something that a lot of people do for fun, but even though I know that makes me incredibly lucky, it isn’t always easy. Sometimes, and this has been the case recently, I struggle to understand what is going on and have no clear sense of the direction of the next move. When that is true, it is important that you aren’t afraid to admit it to yourself, and in my case to all of you too.

Failure to do that usually leads to you forcing yourself into a position in one of the markets you follow, which for me would be WTI and Nat Gas futures and energy-related stocks. It is not that none of them are moving…they are. It’s just that the moves right now are counterintuitive, making predictions really no more than guesses.

Take crude for example…

The latest move was an interesting one. The break of the 50-Day MA (blue line) led to what looked like a long-overdue drop. However, that stalled when the price hit the yellow, 100-Day MA line and reversed back to above the 50. So, what does all that mean?

Well, first, it means that if you paid attention on September 4th when I wrote here that just that was likely to happen, you made some good money. Also, it means that we are back to where we started, and in an upward trend that makes no sense.

The U.S. economy is still weak,…





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