Russia’s Spring Offensive Is Now Underway

On the eve of the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the next phase appears to have begun, and now it’s all about getting more weapons to Ukraine. It’s a race against time. In fact, Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov has been bold enough to say that Moscow will take Kyiv by the end of this year. The NATO consensus, following a Tuesday meeting, is that Moscow could be planning a major air strike to break the battlefield deadlock, including the battle raging now in and around Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine, where Russian forces appear to be making small gains as of mid-this week. NATO intelligence says Russian fighter jets and helicopters are being deployed near the border, prompting the scrambling of air-defense systems for Ukraine.

In the meantime, Russia’s Wagner mercenaries (courtesy of Yevgeny Prigozhin) are coming into even clearer focus as the Wagner kingpin oversteps but is still necessary for Putin’s offensive. Journalist David Patrikarakos, who pens a private newsletter for certain followers, wrote an article this week for the Daily Mail, detailing how Wagner operates, based on his experience embedding with Ukrainian special forces (he’s in Bakhmut right now). Wagner has now taken to helping fill Putin’s invasion ranks by recruiting from Russian prisons, offering them about $1700 to fight in Ukraine, including a presidential pardon if they survive for six months. These mercenaries are more difficult to fight back. As David notes, the regular Russian army can be pushed back in a normal battle. Wagner recruits “advance and die, advance and die”, the result of allegedly pumping them full of drugs. Wagner recruits who try to turn back are beaten with sledgehammers by their superiors. They also use Ukrainian prisoners as human shields in their advance. They are what Patrikarakos calls “Putin’s own terror group”.

That’s one narrative, and it is a devastating one. There’s another narrative, too, and it shows how the West can play dirty, as well, such as with the alleged blowing up of the NordStream pipelines, which journalist Seymour Hersh claimed was an operation conducted by the U.S. with help from Norway. Americans are willing to accept one of two narratives in this war: Either the Americans are saving Ukraine, and by extension, Europe, from Putin’s strong arm… Or, they are a force to be reckoned with, willing to make bold, covert power moves such as blowing up Russia’s pipeline to Europe (and ensuring a boom for American LNG in the process). What they won’t accept is defeat or the appearance that the U.S. is weak in the face of Russian aggression, in which case the Biden Administration could actually score some points by being linked to the destruction of NordStream, even if denied. Americans can easily shift from one narrative to the other, which is why Hersh’s expose is not likely to have any significant impact on how Americans view the Russia-Ukraine war. Next up … how not to look weak when faced with a Chinese threat.