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Oil’s Worst Month In A Decade

Rig

November 2018 will not go down in the history of oil trading as a successful month, in fact it was so bad that the last time we witnessed such a steep decline was in 2008. The upcoming G20 meeting in Buenos Aires and OPEC+ Summit in Vienna on December 06 are mired in a haze – Russia seems disinclined to cut production (especially in the frost-bitten winter period), whilst Saudi Arabia prefers to keep a low profile about its plans, unsure whether the threat of US Congress sanctions is as formidable as it seems.

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WTI declined more than 20 percent this week, with Friday trading oscillating in the 50-51 USD per barrel interval, whilst the global benchmark Brent fell to 58.5-59 USD per barrel. The „oil” ball is in the court of Russia and Saudi Arabia, whose top-ranking officials will meet this weekend to iron out a mutually acceptable course for the next couple of months.

1. US Commercial Stocks Unstoppable for 10th Consecutive Week

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- Contrary to all expectations, US commercial crude stocks continued to rise for the 10th week in a row, increasing 3.6 MMbbl week-on-week to reach 450.5 MMBbl.

- A large part of the stock buildup is due to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawing down 2 MMbbl.

- Refinery runs have reached their highest level since September, increasing 698kbpd week-on-week to reach 17.553 Mbpd.

- The export arbitrage has allowed US producers to export…

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