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Oil Prices To Remain Subdued For Much Of 2016

In the latest edition of the Numbers Report, we’ll take a look at some of the most interesting figures put out this week in the energy sector. Each week we’ll dig into some data and provide a bit of explanation on what drives the numbers.

Let’s take a look.

1. U.S. repeals oil export ban

 

- As part of a last-minute funding deal, the U.S. Congress lifted the ban on oil exports. The repeal was a top priority for oil producers.
- The EIA concludes that the repeal will have little effect through 2025 if U.S. oil production stays below 10.6 million barrels per day. If, however, production rises to 12 mb/d, then the ability to export will allow U.S. drillers to add around 0.5 mb/d in production.
- Of course, there is a wide degree of uncertainty with these projections. Higher global oil prices, for example, would make the ability to export much more important.
- For now, there won’t be a flood of exports from the U.S. In the waning days of 2015, for example, WTI and Brent traded at parity. Absent a premium for Brent, U.S. producers may not be able to send much oil abroad for a profit at this point.

2. Winter heating off to historically slow start

 

- An El Nino weather pattern has led to warm weather washing over the eastern seaboard. New York City posted a record high temperature on Christmas Eve.
- As a result, demand for winter heating has been extremely weak. Heating demand is sharply lower than last year, and also well…




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