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Global Energy Advisory 31th December 2015

Oil's Best & Worst of 2015; The 2016 Geopolitical Disaster

What 2016 has in store for us...

Make no mistake: The West's policy of enlisting and then discarding Sunni Wahhabis and Muslim Brotherhood have more than anything fueled the fire of a war that is no longer pending but here. This policy has given legitimacy to their anger and their beliefs. Syria has given it the pathway, which leads to Iraq and now is fanning it out in every direction.

So how to end this war before it becomes impossible; before ISIS succeeds in creating a large state of its own? That will be difficult at this point because the situation is already out of control. We cannot expect the Middle East to fight ISIS on their own. This would require a uniting of Sunnis who are against ISIS and Shia, which will never happen. At the end of the day, the U.S. alone does not have the resources to fight this war on the ground on all of these fronts. And with Turkey playing its own double game (or triple game), this alliance makes for a very shaky front. Neither will other Sunni countries make for good alliances because it would mean they are de facto promoting Shia ambitions (read: Iran). To think that Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran would combine forces effectively to fight the ISIS scourge would be naive.

What awaits us in 2016, then, is a Third World War played out in a guerrilla warfare setting without any clear boundaries in terms of front lines or alliances. There is no axis. Terrorist…

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