Escalating tensions between the United States and OPEC+, via Saudi Arabia, have triggered some short-term market swings for oil. But a more powerful market force is about to be unleashed - it’s just that analysts can’t seem to agree on which powerful force will be victorious. On the one hand, the looming recession threatens to restrict demand for crude oil, which would have a significant impact on pricing. On the other hand, if Russia makes good on its promise about the oil price caps, a significant amount of oil supply will be taken off the market, with Russia left likely struggling to find alternate homes for its crude oil. Currently, Russia is producing 9.9 million bpd. If it indeed refuses to ship crude oil to any country participating in a price cap, that figure will be slashed considerably, although it is not yet known which countries would participate. Estimates are that another 1 million bpd could be pulled off the market should Russia follow through with its threat - at a time when OPEC+ will likely see a million bpd cut itself. The United States is still in no position to increase domestic production to that extent. So far, the G7 has failed to make much progress on instituting a crude price cap in Russia. Oil prices are set for a big move in the coming months... it's just unclear whether that will be a spike or a crash.
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Turkey’s Erdogan has played both sides of Putin’s…