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Oil Markets Unmoved By Impeachment

Trump

The House’s impeachment of Trump has been the center of attention in the news this week. So far, Wall Street couldn’t care less, largely banking on a Senate acquittal. Oil prices have trended higher over the week on their two favorite indicators: the economy via the trade war, and lower US crude inventory data just in time for Christmas. But impeachment isn’t on anyone’s agenda when it comes to oil. The sentiment seems to be that nothing big is going to happen and they’re not even pricing anything in.  

Aramco: The ‘Inclusion’ Euphoria Is Already Over

By Thursday, Saudi Aramco had already seen its newly listed stock decline for three straight days, now trading down 6% from its high on Monday. At 3.3%, it’s now officially underperforming the Tadawul index. That’s because investors are already taking profits from it. So much for the euphoria surrounding the world’s biggest IPO ever. But if you’ve been tracking this newsletter, we have warned of such plenty of times. 

Foreign investors have largely been clued in. They still think the valuation is too expensive, and they still shy away from government control and geopolitical vulnerabilities. For domestic investors, there have been a fair number of sticks and carrots. 

The ‘sticks’ have been indirect (everyone remembers MBS’ purge of Saudi business elite, which in part was about securing future investments for the Aramco IPO). That’s the biggest stick - the need for the Saudi business elite to demonstrate…





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