Just days ahead of the July 1st OPEC+ meeting, all eyes are firmly on Vienna, and much less so on the incomprehensible back-and-forth between the U.S. and Iran. Traders are banking on production data that shows U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran have managed to reduce OPEC’s oil production by more barrels than OPEC’s own self-imposed restrictions. The total decline in supply to date has been 2.5 million bpd, while OPEC cuts had only 800,000 bpd on the books from members and total OPEC+ cuts were to be 1.2 million bpd. This, of course, gives rise to predictions that OPEC could change its mind about extending cuts, even though the rumor on the street is a deal has already been agreed - even if Russia remains reluctant. We’ll find out in Vienna next week. But the Saudis still need oil to be $70+ a barrel, and data suggests they won’t get it through production cut extensions thanks to the continually rising US shale output, which is expected to top a record 8.5 billion bdp next month.
Haftar’s Calculated Move to Control Libyan Oil Revenues
Media has not figured out what to make of the NOC’s recent statement condemning calls for a shut down of Libya’s entire oil flow. That’s because it’s a tricky backstory to follow. It’s a stroke of genius on the part of General Haftar in his push to take control of Tripoli and the central bank that controls all the oil revenues.
According to our sources, Haftar has…