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Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for the U.S.-based Divergente LLC consulting firm with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and…

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OPEC Won’t Stop When Oil Hits $80

Oil Rigs

OPEC is not in a rush to start winding down the production cuts despite oil prices continuing their strong rally, with Brent briefly breaking above $79 a barrel on Tuesday. The cartel sees the price spike as only a short-term rally driven by geopolitical concerns rather than the fundamentals of a much tighter oil market, OPEC delegates and sources have told Reuters.

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer and de facto leader, views the temporary speculator-driven oil price rally as not enough to start raising production, according to an OPEC source familiar with Riyadh’s thinking.

Supply and demand data need to point to an impact on supply in order for OPEC to make a decision to start winding down the cuts, the source told Reuters.

Asked if $79 oil is too high, one OPEC delegate told Reuters: “Not yet.”

OPEC’s original goal in the production cut pact was to bring oil inventories in developed economies down to their five-year average, and according to the cartel itself, as of March those stocks were just 9 million barrels over that level, and are probably below it by now.

Yet, OPEC—especially Saudi Arabia—is now trying to justify a prolonged period of cuts to tighten the market further, signaling that the five-year average metric would be revised and/or complemented by other data points, such as forward coverage, longer average periods to consider, or even investment in necessary new longer-term supply.

Related: Expert Analysis: What’s Next For Russian Oil

OPEC and friends are meeting on June 22 in Vienna to discuss these metrics and the state of the oil market.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is said to be pushing for $80 a barrel oil or even $100 a barrel, to balance its budget and boost the valuation of Saudi Aramco ahead of a much-anticipated IPO.

Iran, however, is reportedly at odds with Saudi Arabia on the oil price that the cartel should target (although none of them admit there is a price target at all). According to senior Iranian oil officials, the reasonable oil price for Tehran would be $60-65 a barrel.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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  • Mamdouh G Salameh on May 16 2018 said:
    OPEC members should take advantage of the current robust fundamentals of the global oil market and aim to maximize the return on their finite assets to the highest level the global economy will tolerate.

    Anyway, OPEC members need an oil price higher than $100 a barrel to be able to balance their budgets.

    The OPEC/non-OPEC production cut agreement has done a sterling job in eliminating the huge glut in the global oil market. Still, the agreement is here to stay well into the future and it will be transformed into a permanent mechanism which can react quickly to any extreme tightening in the global or market or any significant build in global crude oil and gasoline inventories.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London
  • Designplas on May 18 2018 said:
    OPEC wants an oil price higher than $100 by looting the developing countries and making the poor suffer while its own people live a life of luxury.
    Developing countries should start a plan for at least 10000MW/yr of Solar and Wind projects for next 10 years and take a target for 5% oil consumption reduction each year...

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