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Markets Brace For The Long Term Consequences Of Russia's Invasion


U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are edging higher on Friday after failing to confirm Thursday’s potentially bearish daily closing price reversal top. The weekly uptrend is strengthening while the daily uptrend is showing signs of losing steam.

The volatility is being fueled by fears over a disruption to Russian oil exports in the face of Western sanctions, which would support higher prices, and the prospect of more Iranian supplies in the event of a nuclear deal with Tehran, which could provide short-term relief to higher prices.

The Russian attack on Ukraine will remain the focus for months to come which means that concerns over supply will remain at the forefront. This also means prices are likely to remain at elevated levels, which will put pressure on the government to revive the Iranian nuclear deal.

Short-Term Recap

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures traded at an 11-year high on Thursday, extending the surge since Russia invaded Ukraine seven days ago. The catalysts behind the rally are expectations that the market will remain undersupplied for months to come following the imposition of harsh sanctions on Moscow. Additionally, a flood of divestment from Russian oil assets by major companies has sent users scrambling to find fuel alternatives.

While the energy sector was not specifically targeted, the sanctions have hampered exporting capabilities from Russia, whose oil exports account for about 8% of global supply,…

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