Libya has now opened the floodgates of its oil - tentatively - by lifting force majeure (as of Sunday) on its largest oilfield, al-Sharara. It’s a fragile start, at best, because it hinges on an agreement between the militias of the Petroleum Facilities Guards (PFGs) and the NOC.
What could go wrong? Just about everything. A “gentleman’s” agreement with militias is never a solid thing.
Turkey, for one, is still warmongering and is desperate to provoke the LNA’s General Haftar into another fight. And much is at stake for Turkey, so meddling and interference should be monitored with extreme caution. The brazen deal Turkey cut with the GNA (led by Libyan prime minister Sarraj) is now in question. That deal was Ankara’s last-ditch effort to remain the Mediterranean oil and gas game, because it created a new maritime boundary threatening Greek sovereignty.
Egypt is still on red alert, and Cairo has made it clear that it views the deal between Sarraj (who has said he would resign this month) and Erdogan as illegitimate. The normally toothless European Union has also categorically rejected the demarcation.
Turkey needs the Libyan war to continue because, the way it stands, it is not in Ankara’s favor.
But Haftar is letting the oil flow, for now, and is not being provoked. But this is still a question of revenues. Oil revenues are temporarily going to the Libyan Foreign Bank, rather…