It was only a (short) matter of time before Libya’s oil was once again in a very precarious position as various factions in rival governments attempt to jockey for position. Militia warfare in Tripoli (the seat of the Government of National Accord, GNA) broke out on Monday, killing an estimated 50 people as of Wednesday and wounding scores of others, before dying down.
The trigger in this case was the arrest of a militia commander affiliated with the Libyan defense ministry and allied with the Libyan interim prime minister of the GNA, Abdulhamid Dbeibah. The “arrest” of the commander was perpetrated by another Tripoli militia, also aligned with Dbeibah.
The fighting began to subside once Dbeibah negotiated a deal for the commander’s release late on Tuesday. But this all further underlines the fact that Libya has a major militia problem that will be more than merely challenging to unite in order to hold elections without major violence and a return to active civil war.
There are various militias that support Dbeibah (the western government based in Tripoli), various militias that support the rival eastern powers in Benghazi, and various militias that support neither. It’s a tinderbox of militia that need to be bought and paid for and switch alliances or launch battles at the slightest indication of the balance of power shifting, or for a better offer.
This setup renders it virtually impossible to hold elections…
It was only a (short) matter of time before Libya’s oil was once again in a very precarious position as various factions in rival governments attempt to jockey for position. Militia warfare in Tripoli (the seat of the Government of National Accord, GNA) broke out on Monday, killing an estimated 50 people as of Wednesday and wounding scores of others, before dying down.
The trigger in this case was the arrest of a militia commander affiliated with the Libyan defense ministry and allied with the Libyan interim prime minister of the GNA, Abdulhamid Dbeibah. The “arrest” of the commander was perpetrated by another Tripoli militia, also aligned with Dbeibah.
The fighting began to subside once Dbeibah negotiated a deal for the commander’s release late on Tuesday. But this all further underlines the fact that Libya has a major militia problem that will be more than merely challenging to unite in order to hold elections without major violence and a return to active civil war.
There are various militias that support Dbeibah (the western government based in Tripoli), various militias that support the rival eastern powers in Benghazi, and various militias that support neither. It’s a tinderbox of militia that need to be bought and paid for and switch alliances or launch battles at the slightest indication of the balance of power shifting, or for a better offer.
This setup renders it virtually impossible to hold elections this year, as is the stated intention, and to end the rival government situation. To make this possible, it will be necessary to ensure that every militia is getting an appropriate piece of the pie–all of which is based on oil. There has been absolutely no real progress towards holding elections in Libya, and all talk towards this end is empty, in reality. A united front for a stable Libya is only as possible as the equal distribution–to everyone’s satisfaction–of the country’s vast oil wealth potential.
To emphasize this point, presently, the two militias waging an inter-city war this week were both “Dbeibah’s” militia, each controlling different parts of Tripoli, and from very different backgrounds. The arrested commander was affiliated with the defense ministry, and the rival militia is ultra-conservative and essentially serves as the city’s police force.
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