Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Lithuanian intelligence summarized by the Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia is capable of maintaining its current momentum in the near term and is unlikely to give up on any of its objectives. With elections looming on March 24, a Putin victory will be his final vote for the legitimacy of the war on Ukraine, and once he has secured the presidency, he may proceed with unpopular decisions that he can’t afford during campaign time (such as mobilization). Additionally, Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Moscow is preparing for a confrontation with NATO in the Baltic Sea region in the longer term, keeping in mind that Sweden was just accepted as a NATO member (right after Finland), and it won’t go unanswered.
Iran said it would unload $50 million in crude oil that it seized a year ago aboard the Advantage Sweet, chartered by Chevron. At the time, Iran had accused the vessel of colliding with an Iranian boat.
Turkey’s Dortyol oil terminal will stop receiving Russian oil imports after ratcheting up to new highs last year as the United States continues its pressure campaign on those who seek to do business with Russia. Turkey - along with India and China - has become one of Russia’s most prolific importers of the sanctioned nation’s crude since Russia’s military campaign on Ukraine.
Houthi militants killed three sailors on a Liberian-owned commercial vessel (dry cargo)…
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Lithuanian intelligence summarized by the Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia is capable of maintaining its current momentum in the near term and is unlikely to give up on any of its objectives. With elections looming on March 24, a Putin victory will be his final vote for the legitimacy of the war on Ukraine, and once he has secured the presidency, he may proceed with unpopular decisions that he can’t afford during campaign time (such as mobilization). Additionally, Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Moscow is preparing for a confrontation with NATO in the Baltic Sea region in the longer term, keeping in mind that Sweden was just accepted as a NATO member (right after Finland), and it won’t go unanswered.
Iran said it would unload $50 million in crude oil that it seized a year ago aboard the Advantage Sweet, chartered by Chevron. At the time, Iran had accused the vessel of colliding with an Iranian boat.
Turkey’s Dortyol oil terminal will stop receiving Russian oil imports after ratcheting up to new highs last year as the United States continues its pressure campaign on those who seek to do business with Russia. Turkey - along with India and China - has become one of Russia’s most prolific importers of the sanctioned nation’s crude since Russia’s military campaign on Ukraine.
Houthi militants killed three sailors on a Liberian-owned commercial vessel (dry cargo) on Wednesday, prompting a massive jump in vessels anchoring outside the Suez Canal, unsure of whether to proceed through the Red Sea.
Israel has greenlighted plans for 3,5000 new settlement homes in the occupied West Bank, while Israeli media report that the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expecting to be in Gaza for at least 10 years with the initial stage of war lasting 1-2 years, following by eights years of stabilizing a new alternative government (possibly). A rival for Israeli PM in the next elections, war cabinet minister Benny Gatz, also visited the White House this week, without Netanyahu.
Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions
Global Investment Firm KKR & Co is looking to acquire renewable energy company Encavis AG in a deal valued as high as $2.2B, with advanced negotiations ongoing. A deal could be struck as soon as next week. Germany’s Encavis owns 80+ wind and 200+ solar parks in Europe, but the company has seen its stock suffer, falling by half since early 2021 as renewable stocks dip due to rising interest rates.
Geneva-based trading group Montfort is rumored to be discussing a potential deal with Sinopec to sell off its UAE-based refining facility, currently capable of producing 65,000 bpd. The deal would make Sinopec a more prominent presence in the UAE market. Montfort just purchased its crude oil processing and marine fuel trading business from Uniper last year.
Itochu and SoftBank are investing in a U.S.-based nuclear fusion startup known as Blue Laser Fusion, marking the startup’s first strategic investors from the Japanese private sector. Blue Laser Fusion hopes to make nuclear fusion commercially viable by the end of this decade. BLF was founded in 2022 by the 2014 Nobel Prize winner in physics and has raised a total of $37.5 million so far.
Turkey has signed an intergovernmental energy deal with Somalia this week, after signing a defense deal in February. The deal includes exploration, evaluation, development, and production of oil in Somalia onshore and off. The deal strengthens Turkey’s position in the Horn of Africa. Turkey said that offshore exploration will start “very soon” in specific areas, with the first phase possibly including seismic vessel deployment. The deal encompasses transportation, distribution, refining, sales, and services for oil projects.
Hess has warned its employees that while it is confident it will be victorious in its arbitration case between Exxon and Chevron over the buyout of Hess, there could be a delay in the merger, with arbitration typically taking between five and six months.
Discovery & Development
Sempra expects to have its commercial operations for Energia Costa Azul LNG Phase 1 project ready by next summer, with a nameplate capacity of 3.25 mtpa, or 0.43 Bcf/d. The project is located in Baja California, Mexico. The Biden Administration approved LNG permits for Sempra to export nat gas from Texas and other states from the $2B export terminal back in April last year after some strong-arming by Senator Ted Cruz, who complained that the DoE was dragging its heels.
BP and Harbour Energy are developing plans for Phase 3 of the Clair oilfield offshore the UK, with the target area likely encompassing Clair South–one of the UK’s largest offshore reservoirs.BP drilled four wells last year in Clair Phase 1 and Clair Ridge, and three wells at Schiehallion. Drilling in those areas will continue this year as well. Harbour, as operator, just completed development drilling at its three-well subsea tieback to the Judy Platform known as Talbot, with first oil expected to come near the end of the year.
Eni announced a new oil, gas, and condensate discovery off the Ivory Coast with its Murene-1 exploration well. Eni said its potential resources could total as much as 1.5 billion boe, marking the company’s second huge hydrocarbon discovery off the Ivory Coast over the last few years.
Total and QatarEnergy will increase its exploration efforts in the Orange Basin offshore Namibia through an acquisition of a nearby license in the basin. The two companies signed an agreement to snap up participating interests in Block 3B/4B offshore South Africa from Africa Oil South Africa, Azinam, and Riccocure. When the deal is complete, Total will hold a 33% participating interest in the block and will be operator. QatarEnergy will hold a 24% stake.
China’s state-owned CNOOC announced a major discovery of over 100 million tons of oil equivalent proved in place in a new reserve in the South China Sea in the deepwater South oilfield. The reserve is said to contain light crude.
