This Weekend, Libya’s Fate Is Decided
Breaking developments in Libya suggest that this is the end game, and what happens over the weekend will determine the fate of Libyan oil. General Haftar has not yet confirmed a ceasefire announced by the speakers of parliament of both rival governments on Friday. This is either the calm before the storm or the start of negotiations to end the crippling oil blockade and hold elections for a new government.
If a ceasefire does not succeed, Sirte - the gateway to Libya’s oil facilities - will become an instant battleground for regional forces. The Egyptian military, Russian mercenaries, and Haftar’s LNA (with UAE weaponry) against Turkish forces, Syrian and other mercenaries, and the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA).
A couple of days ago, Egypt’s Al-Sisi sent a message by courier to General Haftar - right after a meeting in Tripoli between the defense ministers of Turkey and Qatar (both allies of the GNA). No one knows what the message said, but Egypt is locked and loaded for military action in Sirte. So, at this point, there are only two options: A ceasefire or an all-out military confrontation between Turkey/Qatar and Egypt/Haftar, which would have massive implications for the entire region. There would be no coming back from a confrontation on that level, and it would spread across the region.
The lead-up to this saw some interesting statements regarding…