Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Last month, the EU heralded a deal with Azerbaijan that would net it extra Azeri gas to reduce dependence on Russia. That deal is now being threatened by renewed fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno Karabakh. Both sides are now accusing each other of violating the ceasefire that ended the 2020 conflict after which Armenia ceded some territory it had controlled in the enclave, with some 2,000 Russian peacekeepers stepping in to maintain the ceasefire. Russia has accused Azerbaijan of breaking the ceasefire, leading to this week’s renewed violence that saw at least three people killed as of the time of writing.
Putin and Ergodan are set to meet on Friday in Sochi, at a time when the Turkish leader has scored serious global points for facilitating the shipment of grain out of Ukraine’s ports and essentially removing the threat of global starvation. The two are on opposite sides of a number of geopolitical situations, including the conflict in Syria and the frozen conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh. On the top of Erdogan’s wishlist now that he has scored some more leverage points is a green light from Russia (and by default, from Iran) to launch another operation against the Kurds in northern Syria - a military operation that is largely intended for the Turkish public as Erdogan faces new elections in less than a year, and he’s not going to win on the economy.