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Is It Time To Get Back Into Natural Gas?

Towards the end of one year and at the beginning of the next, I, like most people I imagine, typically take time to look back on the trading year and see what I can learn from it. Then I apply that analysis to current pricing and work out a base case for stocks, sectors, and commodities for the coming year. I did that this year, and if you are a regular reader, you will have seen the fruits of that over the last month or so, as I gave out some stocks that I will be watching closely this year and wrote about what I thought oil would do going forward. What you may have noticed, though, is that I didn’t write any analysis of natural gas at year’s end.

There was a perfectly good reason for that…natty’s chart for 2022 and early in 2023 pretty much defies analysis…

It was a year of wild swings, even for the often volatile natty. Early in the year, after Russia invaded Ukraine, the main US natural gas futures contract, NG, nearly tripled in the space of six months. That made sense given the outsized role Russia plays in global supply, particularly to European nations, but even within that move up there were some pretty serious retracements. Then the real fun began, with natty losing nearly fifty percent in two months, then bouncing back to gain 60%, then collapse again at the end of the year.

Are you dizzy yet?

From a trading perspective, all of that was fun, as long as you stayed disciplined. Trading natty last year…



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