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India's Oil Demand Is Soaring

Refinery

1. Indian Oil Demand Impresses as Other Asian Giants Falter

- India’s demand for oil has been one of the main success stories of this year, rising 5% on the year (or by some 240,000 b/d according to S&P Platts) as refineries churned out more than 100% of their capacity in January-June.

- Government-sponsored infrastructure projects and a booming Indian economy have been boosting diesel sales, the most consumed fuel in the country and equivalent to 40% of India’s 5.1 million b/d oil demand.

- Whilst this quarter is set to see some structural weakness due to the monsoon season, the winter months are expected to roar back to strength amidst strong agricultural demand, robust industrial activity, and new construction.

- India’s share of newly emerging oil demand growth will double over the next decade to 24-25%, whilst China’s share will drop to 15% from its current 45-50%, with India overtaking China as the largest source of new demand by 2027.

2. Influx of US LNG Curb Asia’s Russian Purchases

- Russian LNG supplies were one of the first victims of Asian buyers’ recent recalibration of purchasing patterns, due to a weaker Chinese pull and lower supplies in general as the Yamal LNG plant is in summer maintenance.

- Asian importers are set to import almost 12 million tonnes of LNG in July, the highest monthly tally in 2023 so far, as the LNG JKM marker remains slightly above $10 per mmBtu, tempting some sleeping giants…





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