Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Investors are still running for the hills in Brazil, where Lula’s first day in office (and his return to the presidency for a third term) resulted in a market rout and sent shares of Petrobras tumbling further. Analysts predict lots of market intervention ahead, and the new incoming CEO of Petrobras (Lula ally Senator Prates) has suggested he is taking the company toward renewables in a big way.
Cracks are showing in the Libyan stalemate/powder keg, with Italian sources saying they have intel that General Haftar is holding secret talks with the Government of National Unity (GNU) led by interim prime minister Dbeibah. In doing so, Haftar is betraying Fatih Bashagha, the rival prime minister from the east appointed earlier last year who has failed to take Tripoli from Dbeibah. We have earlier suggested that some sort of deal was being discussed between Haftar and Dbeibah, when the latter managed to oust the head of the National Oil Company and replace them with loyalists.
Syria is re-emerging as a flashpoint as Turkey wages its war on Syrian Kurds and opens the door for more ISIS activity in a self-fulfilling prophecy. Last week, an attack in eastern Syria killed at least 10 oil field workers, and Syrian Kurdish-led forces are again on the offensive on two fronts–against ISIS and Turkey. Turkey’s allies in the region are Sunni opposition forces, whose leaders have long been luxuriating in Turkey’s…