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Global Intelligence Report - 14th December 2018

OPEC

Sources

- Kazakhstan energy industry executives
- Western hedge fund manager
- A source in the Kazakh political elite inner circle
- A prominent UAE banker
- Libyan investigative journalist in Tripoli

The Oil Cartel Game & Deeper Concerns for MBS

As we noted last week, Qatar’s move to quit OPEC was intended to weaken the cartel. The timing is perfect for Washigton—just as the US is pumping over 11 million bdp, and counting.

Beyond this, Qatar is keen to be out from under any threats posed to its US LNG ambitions because of NOPEC, which could have potentially led to antitrust lawsuits that would risk Qatar’s planned billions of investment in the US.

In the meantime, there is real concern—for the first time—that not only the Khashoggi murder, but also the Mueller probes in DC could significantly undermine Saudi Arabia’s (and the GCC masters’) position in the United States. There are indications now of illegal Gulf involvement in the Trump campaign, and if the Saudis or UAE are found (with evidence, such as large amounts of cash given by figures in Abu Dhabi to Nader) to have subverted the US or interfered with the presidency this could all be pushed over the edge. A key concern will be MBS’ response to this decided cooling of relations, the unpredictable nature of which is the most dangerous aspect.

Investors, Look to Kazakhstan

In mid-November, Kazaatomprom (KAP)—Kazakhstan’s…

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