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Global Intelligence Report - 13th February 2019

Oil Workers

Sources

-Western diplomat in Libya
- Libyan government official
- Energy consultant with background in Libyan oil plays
- Political analyst/expert on Libyan domestic politics and geopolitics
- Turkish private intelligence source

The Global Power Play for Libya: This Is Where It Ends

There is now almost no doubt that there is a parallel organization operating within the Libyan Interior Ministry—a concern even recently expressed by Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha, and confirmed by a Western European diplomatic source. That parallel organization represents the interests of external actors—primarily Western countries, and most clearly, France and Italy.

The climax of this Libyan power play is coming to a close right now, and 2019 is very likely to see its conclusion. That conclusion is now, more than ever, shaping up to be Ghaddafi 2.0 in the form of the rise to power of General Haftar of the Libyan National Army (LNA).

The GNA failed. The Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) also failed to protect Libya’s oil infrastructure; nor did it have any chance of succeeding when it was operating like a fractured group of militias trying to secure Libya’s oil resources for one group or another. When they succeeded in hijacking Libya’s oil resources for two years, which only ended some 8 months ago, they gave Haftar the justification he was waiting for, and he jumped on it.

But Haftar is but a small, localized being in the larger picture. According to our diplomatic source, it’s the bigger game we should all be watching: “Libya has become the battleground between rival foreign interests vying to gain control of the country’s energy sector”. Haftar is playing his part well. As the head of the LNA, he is determined to unify Libya militarily and to that end, he has split some of Libya’s main government bodies, including the Central Bank, the House of Representatives and the Security Forces.

All the while, the GNA continues to lose the support of Western countries, while Haftar continues to be supported by Egypt and the UAE, and is also gaining the backing of France and Italy. At the same time, the GNA is dangerously gaining the attention and support of Qatar and Turkey.

The UN-backed GNA is also facing internal divisions that have only added to the fighting. For example, GNA’s internal divide is still the main reason why the 2019 budget is yet…




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