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Global Energy Advisory March 7th 2014

This week we have some important updates for investors as local elections near and in light of the potential energy and geopolitical reverberations across the Black Sea from Ukraine.

On the domestic politics front ….

There is a great deal of speculation that Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan will attempt to secure a fourth term as prime minister, despite the fact that his party rules put a three-term limit on the post. Until recently, it was assumed that Erdogan would shoot for the president (taking over from President Abdullah Gul) in August 2014 elections, and that Gul would then possibly take over the head of the AKP and the Prime Minister’s post in 2015 general elections. However, this assumption was based on Erdogan’s efforts to turn the largely ceremonial presidency into a more powerful, executive one. That plan has been scrapped for the most part due to the current intense corruption scandal that has hit hard at his government. Though for long staunchly opposed to changing the term limit rules of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Erdogan is now signaling that he would consider a fourth term “if my party wishes so.”

First, however, the AKP has to make it past 30 March local elections, which will be a barometer for what is to come after that—August presidential elections and 2015 general elections.

Earlier this year, Erdogan reshuffled his government and almost completely reorganized the security institutions,…

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