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Global Energy Advisory August 5th 2016

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

The purge in Turkey is continuing and gathering pace, as it expands into more industries. Last week, President Erdogan shut down more than 100 news outlets, major and minor alike, and removed the head of Petkim – the country’s largest refiner and a subsidiary of Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR. Confidence in Turkey’s economy will deteriorate quickly, though Erdogan appears to have no qualms about this. He is now working to restoring Turkey’s connections with Russia, which started with his apology for the downing of a Russian military place last year and now continues with the arrest of two officers responsible for it.

The Kremlin sided with Erdogan over the coup and this has been recognized quite vocally by Ankara. Turkey shows no regard whatsoever for its European allies. He also has no regard for Washington, which he accuses of having been behind the coup. The key takeaway here is that a geopolitical realignment is in the works, and Turkey is looking eastward, to Russia. A new axis of Russia, Iran and Turkey is emerging and the spoils of the Middle East are on the table, beginning with the Syrian playground. Turkey will also be more heavily courting China.

Meanwhile, none other than Saudi Arabia is courting Russia, one of its two biggest rivals on global – more specifically Asian – oil markets. Realizing the threat of an Ankara-Moscow-Tehran axis, Riyadh has promised Russia…

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