September Crude Oil futures are poised to close higher for the week, signaling a shift in momentum back to the upside, after a prolonged move down in terms of price and time. The move didn’t come as a surprise since crude oil began the week eight weeks down from its June top. This put the market in the window of time for a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. It was also testing a major retracement zone and nearing an important bottom – all of the factors talked about in last week’s article that warned traders that price was too far ahead of time.
So the market is basically making an adjustment because it was moving down faster than $1.00 per week which is close to the normal rate of speed for a sell-off. Markets that accelerate to the downside in almost vertical fashion tend to reverse after sellers have exhausted themselves. Sometimes it’s orderly like the reversal currently taking place. And sometimes it’s violent.
To trade crude oil successfully, sometimes you have to set aside the stories and read the price action and order flow. Sometimes you have to get inside of the head of the short-sellers. When a market drops cleanly at a relatively quick speed like crude oil has done the past 8 weeks, it’s easy to get complacent. However, as with any profitable position, no one wants to go through a painful “giveback” of their open position profits.
So when a market hits a downside target zone, short-sellers…