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Global Energy Advisory 9th September 2016

Erdogan

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

• So now that Russia and Turkey are bedfellows once again and making a go at tackling Syria together, it’s (unsurprisingly) not going so well. Controlling the Turks, it would seem, is not as easy as controlling … former Soviet satellites, or Europe for that matter. The new uneasy dynamic is that the Turks appear to think they’ve been given carte blanche by the revived Russian friendship not only to wipe out Kurds from Southeastern Turkey, but also to foray across the border into Syria, where the Kurds have been a key bulwark against ISIS. Now Turkey has gone it alone by advancing its military further into Syria without being invited. In this double or triple or quadruple game that Turkey likes to play, it’s now also pretending to discuss a joint operation with the US to liberate Raqqa in Syria from ISIS. Russia is calling on Turkey to “refrain from steps that could further destabilize the Syrian Arab Republic”. Erdogan is clearly feeling emboldened by the recent failed coup attempt, but the Russian bon homie will only last as long as it’s useful to Moscow, or as long as the pros outweigh the cons in this eternal game of complex shifting alliances.

• Prepare for the worst in Nigeria, as the military tries to take on Niger Delta militants and in the wake of its destruction creates a situation that increases support for the various emerging militant groups in the Delta. Over…

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