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Global Energy Advisory 13th May 2016

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

• For foreign oil companies, all eyes are on Brazil—and what comes next now that President Dilma Rousseff has been suspended for 180 after the senate voted to initiate impeachment proceedings. For the oil industry, it’s tough and go. While there are plenty of things they want to see fixed—from strict local content laws to state-run Petrobras’ mandate to always have a 30-percent operating ownership in the prized sub-salt projects, when vice-president Temer takes the interim helm, no one’s sure what will happen. Interestingly, just two days before Rousseff’s suspension, reports started to emerge that new regulations would allow someone besides Petrobras to have an operating interest in these projects, but there no indication what the government shake-up might mean for that push.

• Everything in Syria right now is about Aleppo, and this is arguably the most decisive battle yet to go down—but it’s also the most chaotic. It’s not just the Islamic State (ISIS) that they’re trying to pin down here, but other militant groups who understand that everything will be definitively decided in Aleppo. They want to make sure they get their own foothold and buy time. The al-Nusra front, which sort of disappeared from everyone’s radar when ISIS began to make major advances, is now back in the game very openly, also staking territory in Aleppo. They aren’t alone.…




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