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Jim Hyerczyk

Jim Hyerczyk

Fundamental and technical analyst with 30 years experience.

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Are We Nearing A Short Term Top For Oil Prices?

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This week can best be described as a “yeah, but…” week. As in “yeah, there are wildfires in Canada helping to cut output by 1 million barrels per day, but the fires have been contained”. “Yeah, the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) reported a build of 3.5 million barrels in preliminary data issued on Tuesday, but the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories fell 3.4 million barrels the week-ending May 6.” “Yeah, Kuwait said ‘I assume fundamentally the price (rise) represents the fall of production’, but in a sign of an ongoing aggressive fight for market share, Iran has set its June official selling prices for heavier grades it sell to Asia at the biggest discounts to Saudi and Iraqi oil since 2007-2008.”

The mixed news was not enough to break the crude oil market this week, which tells me there may be other forces working to support the uptrend. These forces may be the general belief that the market has started to rebalance. And this is giving investors the incentive to continue to support the market on weakness. No one seems willing to sell a downtick or buy an uptick, yet the market continues to producer higher-highs and higher-lows, putting it in a position to continue to grind higher over the near-term.

This idea received additional support this week when the International Energy Agency raised its 2016 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.16 million in April.

If there…




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