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Global Energy Advisory 12th July 2019

Today’s IEA report isn’t exactly a speculator’s dream forecast. 

Previously, the IEA was predicting a crude supply deficit of a half a million barrels per day next year. Not anymore. Friday’s report projects that supply will actually dwarf demand by nearly a million barrels per day. And in the first half of this year.

That’s a significant overhang.

And it could get even worse. Non-OPEC producers are set to unleash an additional 2.4 million bpd of crude into the market next year. That tally made possible by new North American pipeline capacity and production expansion in Norway, Brazil and Australia. 

Welcome to the new oil market. It’s far less sensitive to OPEC’s production quotas. 

The Hormuz Fear Factor

Watch oil shipping insurance prices skyrocket now--and they were already doubled for the war risk. The problem is that this risk premium hasn’t been priced in yet, and the showdown of tankers in global shipping lanes is just beginning …

This is a game of cat and mouse. Whether Iranian boats attempted to “impede”, “harass” or “seize” a British oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz Wednesday is all the same game. The British Heritage vessel, chartered by BP, knew it was coming, which was why they were hunkering down off the Saudi coast prior to that, afraid to move on. The Iranians weren’t daunted by the ship’s military…



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