Friday, May 15, 2020
1. IEA: Gasoline demand will come back quickly
- The IEA said in its latest Oil Market Report that global oil demand hit its nadir in April (-25.2 bm/d), and will still be down by 21.5 mb/d in May. But the agency has a somewhat optimistic take on demand recovery for the rest of the year.
- In the U.S., for instance, gasoline demand was down 12 percent in March, year-on-year, and 40 percent in April. But in May, demand will be down 25 percent, and only 15 percent in June.
- In the second half of the year, gasoline demand “returns to normal,” the IEA said.
- But that assumes “no continued impact from confinement measures,” which, to say the least, is a rather large caveat.
2. U.S. and OPEC+ shoulder cuts
- Non-OPEC supply has already declined by 3 mb/d since the start of the year, with more in the offing, according to the IEA.
- Total global supply is set to plunge by 12 mb/d in May, a combination of shut-ins and the OPEC+ cuts. At 88 mb/d, production will be at the lowest level in 9 years.
- By the fourth quarter, U.S. supply could be down 2.8 mb/d compared to the end of 2019.
- Drilling activity in U.S. shale is at a record low. “[W]e think that the last time there was so little drilling activity in the US was the 1860s during the first decade of the Pennsylvania oil boom,” Standard Chartered analysts said in a note.
3. Storage crisis eases