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Europe's Natural Gas Price Rally Stokes Supply Concerns

1. ExxonMobil-Pioneer Merger May Spark Further Giant Deals

- The largest upstream deal since Shell’s 2015 acquisition of BG for $82 billion, ExxonMobil’s acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources has become the crown jewel of post-Covid E&P consolidation.

- With the Pioneer deal, ExxonMobil will gain over 700,000 boe/d of production in the Midland Basin as well as 5 billion of annual free cash flow, creating the world’s largest tight oil company with a Permian resource base of over 16 billion boe.

- By 2024, the Permian is set to account for almost 40% of ExxonMobil’s upstream operating cash flow, with ConocoPhillips being the only major to have a Permian focus higher than that (at 41%).

- Other US majors might be tempted to join the E&P acquisition game, with Diamondback, Permian Resources, or Matador becoming hotter targets for the likes of Chevron or ConocoPhillips.

2. Russian Flows Increasingly Relying on Non-Western Oil Tankers

- Roughly 60% of Russia’s seaborne crude exports are now shipped by tankers that do not need to comply with the G7 oil price cap, complicating efforts to curb Moscow’s revenue from oil sales.

- As Russia’s main export grade Urals has been trading above the oil price cap of $60 per barrel since July 11 on a FOB Primorsk basis and India has been reporting purchase prices of $85-86 per barrel, the enforcement of the price cap has been questionable…

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