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Does OPEC Have Enough Spare Capacity?

Oil

Friday September 28, 2018

In the latest edition of the Numbers Report, we’ll take a look at some of the most interesting figures put out this week in the energy sector. Each week we’ll dig into some data and provide a bit of explanation on what drives the numbers.

Let’s take a look.

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Key Takeaways

- In a somewhat quiet report this week, the EIA said that crude oil inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels, ending several consecutive weeks of drawdowns. That is not necessarily surprising as refineries pare back runs after the summer season. Indeed, refining runs fell sharply.

- Production rose by another increment of 100,000 bpd, a sign that the shale bonanza continues to grind higher, even if at a slower pace.

1. Legacy production decline growing


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• The higher the level of shale drilling, the larger the base of decline becomes.

• That is just a reflection of a larger production base, as well as the rapid decline that shale wells typically experience.

• In the first half of 2018, the U.S. needed to add around 500,000 bpd of new production every month just to keep production from falling, according to Rystad Energy.

• That is up from a decline base of 50,000 to 60,000 bpd in 2006-2009, prior to the shale revolution.

2. East Coast refiners resort to imports

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• East Coast refiners are somewhat isolated from the production…




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