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China And India Drive Oil Demand Recovery

1. Shell reports small profit

- Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) reported a small $177 million profit in the third quarter, rebounding from a $6 billion loss (plus a massive write-down) in the second quarter. But headwinds remain – low refining margins, low LNG margins and low crude oil prices.

- Shell also raised its dividend slightly, signaling a plan to progressively hike dividends going forward. The dividend rose 4 percent to 16.65 cents per share.

- Shell said that once it cuts its massive debt pile from $73.5 billion down to $65 billion, it would begin handing off 20% to 30% of cash flow to shareholders.

- Meanwhile, Shell continues its energy transformation, allocating 25% of its capex to “the future of energy businesses,” including hydrogen, biofuels and renewables.

2. China and India drive oil demand

- China’s gasoline demand could hit a peak around 2027, according to a new report from Goldman Sachs. Demand could fall by around 6 percent from that peak by 2030.

- In this scenario, China’s crude oil demand peaks around 2026, falling 11 percent by 2030.

- However, Goldman Sachs does not see crude oil demand hitting a peak this decade, “due to sustained non-OECD economic growth.”

- In the next five years, China and India still exhibit strong demand growth, averaging 2 and 3 percent CAGR, respectively.

3. Crude futures sink

- Oil prices plunged…





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