1. Oil Supply Disruptions Set To Ease
- With September seeing crude supply disruptions across continents, the upcoming months should bring most of that idled capacity back, also boosted by the end of field maintenance in Kazakhstan and Canada.
- Russia’s condensate supply was derailed by an August explosion at Gazprom’s condensate treatment plant, whilst Nigerian exports were hindered by oil spills and pipeline attacks.
- Shell, the main producer in the US Gulf of Mexico, indicated that repairing the West Delta-143 platform will take at least several months, shaving off some 250,000 b/d of production over Q4 2021.
- More than 16% of US Gulf of Mexico production is still shut-in, equivalent to almost 300,000 b/d as the pace of restoring output has weakened substantially this week.
2. Gas Prices Continue Their Insane Run
- Europe’s benchmark TTF pricing has netted another all-time high this week, with front-month ICE prices reaching €75 per MWh ($25 per mmBtu) this Monday, before dipping closer to the €70 per MWh threshold.
- In the meantime, spot LNG prices in Asia continued their upward movement, too, surging past $25 per mmBtu this week in unison with Europe.
- Russia’s pipeline gas monopoly Gazprom has still failed to book additional October capacity as it continues to replenish domestic inventories, while landed LNG prices in Europe are more than fourfold their seasonal average.