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A Worrying Sign For Oil Markets

Market Movers

- OPEC has once again revised downward its estimate for global oil demand growth for 2019. In its fourth downward revision in five months, OPEC now estimates that demand for oil will grow by 980,000 bpd - a 40,000 barrel adjustment. Its projections for 2020 remain unchanged at 1.08 million bpd. OPEC blames souring demand growth prospects on US/China trade uncertainties along with other uncertainties such as Brexit.

- The US Energy Department estimates that Canada will account for nearly 25% of all new crude oil supplied globally through 2050, despite Alberta’s forced production cuts to reduce the record high price spread between WCS and WTI. Canada is still struggling with takeaway capacity, which has limited exports and depressed prices. It is also struggling with anti-oil sentiment outside of oil-rich Alberta and infighting among provinces. Canada is home to the world’s third-largest proven crude oil reserves.

- With the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure two weeks cold, money managers are cutting their future positions on oil to levels seen prior to the attack. The greater fear now, it would seem, is oil demand destruction due to the China-US trade war and worsening economic outlook, though the prospect of a total disintegration of the situation in Iraq may help balance this out.

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