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A Surprising Oil Major Pick

I’m sure it drives my editors here mad, but I usually write my piece here on Friday morning, just before it goes out to you, the reader. To be honest, that is in part due to the usual tendency of a writer towards procrastination, but it also enables what I write to be up to date and relevant when you read it. This morning, my late delivery is paying dividends as it enables me to give a “hot take” on two big oil earnings reports.

Both Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) released Q3 results this morning. When looked at on a historical basis, neither were great, as both showed significant declines from the same quarter last year. Still, when it comes to earnings, everything is relative, and XOM is trading higher this morning after beating expectations, while CVX’s miss has resulted in a drop in the stock.

However, even though XOM beat and CVX missed, I still prefer CVX as an investment right now.

When analyzing markets and individual stocks, I take what is known as a “top down” approach, which is to say that I start with the big picture of global economics and growth, then drill down by country, sector, industry and finally individual stocks. In this case, it is the “big picture” view that causes me to favor CVX over XOM.

What has become clear over the last year or so is that while global growth is slowing, the U.S. economy is holding up well. That is why, despite the fears that are holding…




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