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A Recession Is Looming For The U.S.

1. The Spectre of Recession Is Getting Closer

- US manufacturing contracted for a second straight month, with the manufacturing PMI index issued by the Institute for Supply Management coming in at 48.4 for December, the lowest since May 2020.

 - Exceeding analysts’ forecasts, the decline in manufacturing – accounting for 11.3% of the US economy – is perceived by many as a harbinger of a soon-to-come recession.  - A robust labor market is by now pretty much the only thing keeping the US from plunging into a recession, though the December report is to be published this Friday.  - The ISM’s forward-looking new orders index plummeted even lower to 45.2, well below the 50 threshold that indicates contraction. falling for the fourth straight month. 2. Russian Oil Exports Edge Lower in December 

- Russian seaborne crude exports dropped to a two-year low last month to 2.65 million b/d as the introduction of the oil price cap brought deliveries to Europe to an absolute minimum. 

 - Bulgaria, which has a two-year exemption until the end of 2024, appears to be the only EU country still taking Russian crude as the rest is being moved to Asia.  - The Kremlin vowed to ban all crude exports to countries observing the oil price cap in late December as Russian firms ramped up purchases of “shadow” tankers to transport their oil. - Even though the product price cap will go online…

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