• 3 minutes Don't sneeze. Coronavirus is a threat to oil markets and global economies
  • 5 minutes Boris Johnson taken decision about 5G Huawei ban by delay (fait accompli method)
  • 9 minutes This Battery Uses Up CO2 to Create Energy
  • 12 minutes Shale Oil Fiasco
  • 9 mins Historian Slams Greta. I Don't See Her in Beijing or Delhi.
  • 3 hours We're freezing! Isn't it great? The carbon tax must be working!
  • 18 hours Indonesia Stands Up to China. Will Japan Help?
  • 8 hours US (provocations and tech containment) and Chinese ( restraint and long game) strategies in hegemony conflict
  • 4 mins Beijing Must Face Reality That Taiwan is Independent
  • 19 hours Tesla Will ‘Disappear’ Or ‘Lose 80%’ Of Its Value
  • 23 hours Environmentalists demand oil and gas companies *IN THE USA AND CANADA* reduce emissions to address climate change
  • 10 hours Might be Time for NG Producers to Find New Career
  • 2 days Phase One trade deal, for China it is all about technology war
  • 6 hours Trump has changed into a World Leader
  • 1 day Anti-Macron Protesters Cut Power Lines, Oil Refineries Already Joined Transport Workers as France Anti-Macron Strikes Hit France Hard
  • 2 days Angela Merkel take notice. Russia cut off Belarus oil supply because they would not do as Russia demanded

The Next Major Catalyst For Oil

Oil Sands

Last week we saw OPEC+ come to terms on a deal to extend their existing supply cut agreement into March of 2020. With that transaction in the rearview, we think oil markets will likely spend much of July being macro-obsessed with a high degree of interest in the US Fed’s next interest rate decision on July 31st with guidance coming from US Fed Chief Jerome Powell in public remarks today and Thursday. There will doubtless be attention paid to US/China trade relations, Iran’s recent uranium enrichment efforts and global crude fundamentals but the Fed’s next move could be of intense interest as global growth concerns likely reclaim center stage.

Major central bank moves are always of interest to risk assets but we think the current one is setting up to particularly impactful for two reasons. Firstly, there seems a slight disconnect to us on what markets are expecting for Fed actions versus the messaging we’re getting from the central bank’s leadership. Second, OPEC+ is unlikely to make headlines anytime in July, clearing a path for focus on the state of the global economy to retake traders’ focus. US refiner demand is currently lower y/y by about 300k bpd despite solid GDP growth and we are increasingly concerned about the ability of this market to generate demand growth in the second half of the year.

On the first point, recent volatility in short term Treasuries suggests traders have a diverse set of views on what the Fed might…




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News