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Global Intelligence Report – February 27th, 2019

Sources

• Nigerian investigative journalist with access to Niger Delta militants
• Nigerian boots on the ground at election time
• Financial journalists in the Gulf
• Geneva-based investigator looking into Softbank
• Former Softbank exec

Niger Delta Oil in the Election Aftermath

With all the results in from Nigeria’s 36 states, President Muhammadu Buhari appears to have met all the requirements for victory and re-election to a second four-year term, with 56 percent of the vote to his main rival Atiku Abubakar’s 41 percent.

However, all the signs point to a controversial victory, with opposition parties alleging tampering with results, deliberate suppression of votes and outright falsification of results by the ruling All Progressives Congress, using the full force of incumbency and the security agencies to achieve this objective. Some of the allegations of the opposition have been borne out by election observers, who identified many cases where the number of votes cast exceeded the number of people accredited in a process where both were supposed to happen simultaneously. The implication of this is that rather than expect the concession of the main challenger, Abubakar, Nigeria may be entering a period of prolonged electoral dispute as a legal challenge goes through the courts, with all the uncertainties it entails.

For Nigeria’s oil-producing Niger Delta, the electoral outcome has implications…




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