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Global Intelligence Report - 2nd November 2018

-Geopolitical analyst for global consulting firm
-China-focused consultant for Fortune 500 companies and major international institutions
-High-level Turkish government sources in Ankara
-Top aide to Turkish deputy foreign minister
-Turkish presidential chief advisor

Containing China, Destroying American LNG

For investors, the biggest bet to make right now is on LNG. And what happens next will be key, right ahead of mid-term elections. Trump needs a win in this war against China—hence all the speculation that we will see some sort of deal come out before elections. But in order to even begin to speculate on what that deal might be, we have to understand that the trade war has become about something much bigger than tariffs meant to boost U.S. manufacturing. This is about containing China’s growth, and LNG plays a massive roll in this. It’s a game the US absolutely must win.

From where we stand, Exxon Mobil is positioned to be the biggest beneficiary of the trade war in terms of LNG. The supergiant is harvesting Chinese LNG demand and avoiding China’s tariffs on U.S. natural gas imports at the same time.

China’s strategy is now changing. Most significantly, the trade war is making big foreign investors a part of the Chinese strategic element. Exxon is taking full advantage of this. According to an intelligence expert at a China-focused consultancy in Europe, and it’s this move that has hedge funds most…




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