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Global Energy Advisory September 2nd 2016

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

• Iraq has warned it might start exporting crude via Iran, if negotiations with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) fail. The negotiations were prompted by a dispute between Baghdad and Erbil, the Kurdistan autonomous region’s capital, over control of Kirkuk, an oil-rich region in northern Iraq. The KRG has been calling on Baghdad to restart shipping Iraqi crude via the pipeline that passes through Kurdistan and into the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Pipeline supplies were indeed restarted last week, at a rate of 75,000 bpd, which is half of what Baghdad was sending by that route prior to March this year. If the negotiations end successfully, this amount will be increased to over 100,000 bpd, but not back to 150,000 bpd, according to Iraq’s deputy oil minister Fayadh al-Nema. Kirkuk—which sits in disputed territory in the north between the KRG territory and the rest of Iraq under Baghdad’s full authority—has now chimed in, making it clear there is no way they will allow Baghdad to redirect crude on trucks through Iran.

• Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff has been formally removed from office by the Senate, which ruled she had violated budgetary laws and used money from state-owned banks to fuel public spending programs. However, the Senate did not implicate Rousseff for participation in the huge corruption scandal centering on state oil giant Petrobras, which led to a large-scale investigation…

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