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Global Energy Advisory August 19th 2016

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

• South Sudan is determined to ramp up its oil production and by November start exporting fuels to neighbor Ethiopia. The announcement was made by the new Oil Minister of the war-torn country, Ezekiel Lol Gatkuoth. The new country, which split from Sudan five years ago, has run into trouble with warring political factions but now it is firmly on the path to peace, said Vice-President Taban Deng Ga Deng during a recent visit to Kenya. The path is right but it may prove to be a very long one and the ambitions to have oil output return to pre-war levels could turn out to be premature, as former Vice-President Riek Machar, who fled the country earlier this year after helping form a post-war government in April, still has supporters in South Sudan.

• The situation with Libya’s oil terminals remains tense, with the Libyan National Army, which doesn’t recognize the Government of National Accord, planning to take over three terminals: Zuetina, El-Sidra, and Ras Lanuf. At the moment, these three are under the control of the Petroleum Facilities Guard, which has sided with the UN-recognized GNA. It seems that any hopes for a renewal of Libyan oil exports to any semblance of pre-war levels remain vain for the time being. That said, on Thursday, reports began to emerge that the first exports are resuming now from Zuetina. However, on closer scrutiny, at the time of writing, these cargoes were simply being loaded and…

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