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Global Energy Advisory December 9, 2016

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

• The Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) of Libya is fighting the Libyan National Army (LNA) to regain control over the country’s export terminals, which LNA took over in September. The PFG, which is affiliated with the UN-backed Government of National Accord, had suspended shipments of crude from the ports for two years, using the facilities as a bargaining chip in its financial disputes with government agencies. The LNA, on the other hand, which reports to the rival government, the House of Representatives, handed control of the ports to the National Oil Corporation and exports were restarted. The move is widely seen as a quest for power by the LNA’s leader, Khalifa Haftar. The latest from the Oil Crescent is that NOC had evacuated some personnel from the El Sider port because of the LNA-PFG clashes in the area. General Haftar is largely responsible for the relaunch of Libyan oil exports, while the PFG had been holding them hostage. Alliances here are tricky with respect to the PFG, which is largely militia for hire. While Haftar definitely had the upper hand in this equation, the PFG has managed to regroup to some extent—enough so to try to take on the LNA forces once again. We believe Haftar retains the upper hand, but nonetheless it’s getting bloody once again and Libyan oil revenues may suffer.

• Russia and Turkey are working on mending their relations after the freeze following the Turkish…

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