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Global Energy Advisory 9th March 2018

The United States would single-handedly be able to meet as much as 80% of growth in global oil demand over the next five years, the International Energy Agency has said. This could very well wipe out any price gains that OPEC is hoping for as a result of its production cuts.

Adding insult to injury, the IEA said that the remaining 20% of global demand growth would be covered by three other non-OPEC countries: Brazil, Canada, and Norway. OPEC hasn’t shown it’s worried for the time being. At this year’s edition of CERAWeek, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid al-Falih said OPEC is not worried about oil demand forecasts but he did add that Saudi Arabia is planning to pay more attention to developing its mineral resources.

OPEC apparently has different forecasts for global demand. Aramco’s chief executive Amin Nasser said economic growth in emerging economies would boost oil demand along with the increase in energy consumers by two billion by 2050. Demand for petrochemicals and other oil productions different from fuels will also contribute.

All these are forecasts, of course--all of them assigning top priority to U.S. shale. But there are industry insiders that are warning against too much optimism. Analyst Art Berman, a notorious contrarian, has been joined by Continental’s Harold Hamm and, most recently, the former CEO of EOG Resources, Mark Papa, who believe the second shale revolution is overhyped, with producers already…




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