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Global Energy Advisory – 13th November 2015

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict 

Turkey: Energy hub dreams waylaid by violence

About this time last year, everyone was pretty sure that Turkey stood a chance of becoming a major energy hub for the entire world. Its strategic position and its ability to ally itself with all the major oil countries at once, still keeping a fair amount of political distance between them was indeed promising. But now the fallout from the conflict in Syria has spilled across the border into Turkey in more ways than one. Turkey is no longer ready to become that energy hub.

While tensions have been brewing and even last year we were sounding the alarm bells, the past month has been much more tangible in terms of the threat spreading in and around Turkey’s southeastern border with Syria—which is also one key area of oil exploration.

That the situation has spiraled out of control was made most evident on 10 October, when 95 people were killed in a terrorist attack (caution: this doesn’t necessarily mean it was the PKK or ISIS/IS and it could just as easily have been opposition forces) at a peaceful demonstration at the Ankara Railway Station. That we don’t know who was responsible is indicative of the growing civil strife, from which violence can erupt at just about any point. Very important general elections are also just around the corner.

At the end of the day, we should be very concerned about Turkey—surrounded by major oil players…

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