• 5 minutes 'No - Deal Brexit' vs 'Operation Fear' Globalist Pushback ... Impact to World Economies and Oil
  • 8 minutes China has *Already* Lost the Trade War. Meantime, the U.S. Might Sanction China’s Largest Oil Company
  • 12 minutes Will Uncle Sam Step Up and Cut Production
  • 1 hour China has invested btw $30 - $40 Billon in Canadian Oil Sands. Trump should put 10% tariffs on all Chinese oil exported into or thru U.S. in which Chinese companies have invested .
  • 3 hours It's Not the Job of the Government to Dictate Where Businesses Should Go
  • 13 hours Trump vs. Xi Trade Battle, Running Commentary from Conservative Tree House
  • 3 hours Offshore subsea sub 50$/bbl : Rystad Energy: High stakes in store for subsea markets if oil falls to $50/bbl
  • 34 mins Tit For Tat: China Strikes Back In Trade Dispute With U.S. With New Tariffs
  • 54 mins US Shale Economic Impact: GDP gain realized in shale boom’s first 10 years
  • 1 day Iran Is Winning Big In The Middle East
  • 1 day IS ANOTHER MIDDLE EAST WAR REQUIRED TO BOLSTER THE OIL PRICE
  • 22 hours Strong, the Strongest: Audi To Join Mercedes, BMW Development Alliance
  • 23 hours Wonders of US Shale: US Shale Benefits: The U.S. leads global petroleum and natural gas production with record growth in 2018
  • 7 hours Philadelphia Energy Solutions seeks to permanently shut oil refinery - sources
  • 7 hours TRUMP'S FORMER 'CHRISTIAN LIAISON' SAYS DEEPWATER HORIZON DISASTER WAS GOD'S PUNISHMENT FOR OBAMA ISRAEL DIVISION
  • 9 hours US to Drown the World in Oil

Libya: Countrywide Alert, Capital Uncertainty

Bottom Line: While the oil-rich Benghazi region has been in a critical security state for some time, the capital Tripoli should be considered a top threat. Lufthansa and Austrian Airlines have halted all flights to Tripoli and more organized clashes have emerged in the city’s suburbs. These clashes go beyond the smaller-scale skirmishes between a multitude of armed groups roving the country.

Analysis: On 5 February, Lufthansa and Austrian Airlines indefinitely halted all flights to Tripoli, detecting a deterioration of the security situation, which is largely due a shift in militants from the conflict theater in Mali. Lufthansa has halted flights to Tripoli on and off over the course of late 2012, but the situation on the ground in Tripoli indicates that a more significant battle for control is underway. Tripoli’s Ben Ashour district has been the scene of clashes between military forces and unidentified militants groups.
   
In Sirte a power struggle is underway between forces loyal to a local military commander and forces belonging to the militant Zawiyah Martyrs Brigade. This threatens to evolve into a full-scale armed conflict for control of this venue. The Zawiyha Martyrs Brigade is one of the many groups that is actually tasked by the government with providing security in certain areas. The loyalty of these groups is at best uncertain, and we expect to see a major shift in loyalties with the influx of militants from Mali as a result of the French intervention there. In early January, this same brigade was involved in clashes with government security forces to the south of Sirte.

The second anniversary of the revolution in Libya is on 17 February, and tensions are particularly high.

Security in the country's major oil regions will continue to a be a priority for the government, however they will be unable to guarantee security at sites in the south of the country at least over the coming year, particularly given the levels of instability in areas such as Sabha and al-Kufra, and the general lack of security presence in the country's border regions. The US has extended emergency sanctions on Libya for another year.

Recommendations: All travel to Libya should be postponed in and around the date of the second anniversary of the revolution, and until further notice. Security is being boosted in anticipation of an increased in armed clashes, but we expect this additional security to itself be targeted by militant groups who are not under the control of government forces.




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News
Download on the App Store Get it on Google Play