• 5 minutes 'No - Deal Brexit' vs 'Operation Fear' Globalist Pushback ... Impact to World Economies and Oil
  • 8 minutes China has *Already* Lost the Trade War. Meantime, the U.S. Might Sanction China’s Largest Oil Company
  • 12 minutes Will Uncle Sam Step Up and Cut Production
  • 7 mins China has invested btw $30 - $40 Billon in Canadian Oil Sands. Trump should put 10% tariffs on all Chinese oil exported into or thru U.S. in which Chinese companies have invested .
  • 15 hours Iran Is Winning Big In The Middle East
  • 2 hours Tit For Tat: China Strikes Back In Trade Dispute With U.S. With New Tariffs
  • 4 hours Trump vs. Xi Trade Battle, Running Commentary from Conservative Tree House
  • 2 hours It's Not the Job of the Government to Dictate Where Businesses Should Go
  • 17 hours Not The Onion: Vivienne Westwood Says Greta Thunberg Should Run the World
  • 16 hours IS ANOTHER MIDDLE EAST WAR REQUIRED TO BOLSTER THE OIL PRICE
  • 1 day OPEC will consider all options. What options do they have ?
  • 1 day Trump cancels Denmark visit amid spat over sale of Greenland
  • 13 hours Strong, the Strongest: Audi To Join Mercedes, BMW Development Alliance
  • 14 hours Wonders of US Shale: US Shale Benefits: The U.S. leads global petroleum and natural gas production with record growth in 2018
  • 1 day Long Range Attack On Saudi Oil Field Ends War On Yemen
  • 9 hours Recession Jitters Are Rising. Is There Reason To Worry?

Assassination in Tunisia, Trigger for Revolutionary Revival

Bottom Line: The assassination on 6 February of opposition politician Chokri Belaid, a notable opponent of the Islamist-led government, is the trigger that will push the ongoing political crisis and socio-economic unrest over the edge.

The public response to the shooting of Belaid outside his home in the capital Tunis was immediate and country-wide. Protests, always ongoing, have erupted with a renewed force giving a common voice to what will be a definitive popular uprising. Islamist officials had late last year warned of a military coup, which may now become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Chokri Belaid

Analysis: Unlike Egypt, Tunisia has a secular president, while the government is controlled by Islamic forces. The past few weeks have seen intensified political horse-jockeying over a cabinet reshuffle prompted by an increase in violent strikes and protests across the country. Consensus could not be reached, and attempts to get the Islamist parties to give up key ministries like security and justice failed.

The assassination takes this political conflict to another, irreversible level, and Tunisia offers them a pipeline of weapons and fighters from Libya and elsewhere if the most radical Islamist forces wish to throw in their support. In mid-January, only days before the attack on the Amenas gas facility in Algeria, Tunisia authorities discovered to arms depots in the south, home to Tunisia’s hydrocarbon reserves, and also along the route to Libya. These depots contained a shopping list of equipment mirroring that necessary to launch the Amenas attack. It is clear that another attack had already been planned.

Tunisia still has only an interim government that is under immense pressure. January has seen continual protests specifically against the Islamist government, while the economic situation deteriorates along with political deadlock over a new constitution that would allow for new elections. The rural areas are seething with socio-economic unrest and 80% unemployment in the poorest areas and ongoing strikes elsewhere. This assassination is the trigger than will things to a climax in the capital.

Recommendation: Some foreign investors who have personnel but not physical facilities in Tunisia have already seen what this means and where it leads, and have begun to make plans to pull out, according to our intelligence. This does not include the energy sector, but here is where we would caution strongly, particularly in the wake of the Algeria attack and the discovery of very specific arms depots in the south.




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News
Download on the App Store Get it on Google Play