• 4 minutes Energy Armageddon
  • 6 minutes How Far Have We Really Gotten With Alternative Energy
  • 10 minutes Russia Says Europe Will Struggle To Replace Its Oil Products
  • 5 hours GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES
  • 28 mins Reality catching up with EV forecasts
  • 2 days "Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Grinding Toward Summer Highs Despite Huge Short Interest" by James Hyerczyk & REUTERS on NatGas
  • 12 days US Oil Independence is a myth and will always be a myth
  • 1 day A Somewhat Realistic View of the Near Future for Electric Vehicles Worldwide
  • 7 days The Federal Reserve and Money...Aspects which are not widely known
  • 16 days Natural gas price to spike when USA is out of the market
  • 12 days Oil Stocks, Market Direction, Bitcoin, Minerals, Gold, Silver - Technical Trading <--- Chris Vermeulen & Gareth Soloway weigh in
  • 15 days "Biden Is Running U.S. Energy Security Into The Ground" by Irina Slav
  • 15 days *****5 STARS - "The Markets are Rigged" by The Corbett Report
U.S. Gasoline Prices Continue To Climb

U.S. Gasoline Prices Continue To Climb

Gasoline prices continue to climb…

Will Oil Continue To See Extreme Volatility?

Will Oil Continue To See Extreme Volatility?

China's recovery and U.S. shale…

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

More Info

Premium Content

Bullish Goldman Sachs Expects Brent To Hit $49 By Year-End

Goldman Sachs is bullish on oil, expecting the market to be in a deficit of around 3 million barrels per day (bpd) by the fourth quarter and Brent Crude prices to recover to $49 a barrel by the end of this year, from $43 early on Friday.  

According to a new report from Goldman analysts, carried by Reuters, the recent floating storage of oil is more "transient inventory allocation dynamics" instead of a signal of a new glut.

"We estimate that the oil market remains in deficit with speculative positioning now at too low levels," Goldman Sachs said, keeping its Brent Crude target at $49 by end-2020 and $65 by the third quarter of 2021.

ADVERTISEMENT

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs forecast Brent Crude to reach $65 a barrel in the third quarter of 2021, although it could end next year lower, at $58 a barrel.

Goldman Sachs also expects WTI Crude to rally to $55.88 a barrel by the third quarter of 2021, up from $51.38 a barrel in earlier forecasts.

ADVERTISEMENT

"There is a growing likelihood that vaccines will become widely available starting next spring, helping support global growth and oil demand, especially jet," the Goldman analysts said earlier this month, and are keeping that view.

Vitol Group, the world's largest independent oil trader, also expects global oil inventories to continue drawing down for the rest of the year, unlike its rivals and many analysts who see a growing glut on the market.

The world's stockpiles of oil have diminished by around 300 million barrels since peaking at 1.2 billion barrels early this summer, and are expected to decline by another 250 million-300 million barrels between September and December, Vitol's chief executive officer Russell Hardy told Bloomberg in an interview earlier this week.

Vitol looks more bullish on oil's short-term prospects than another major commodity trader, Trafigura, which expects a "supply-heavy" market through the end of the year, with inventories building by the end of 2020 as demand recovery stalls. 

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:


Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage


ADVERTISEMENT


ADVERTISEMENT



Leave a comment
  • Mamdouh Salameh on September 18 2020 said:
    Based on the current fundamentals of the global oil market, Goldman Sachs’ projection of a Brent oil price of $49 a barrel by year-end and $65 by third quarter of 2021 is very reasonable.

    I am on record having been saying for the last six months that I project a Brent oil price ranging from $45-$50 before the end of this year and touching $60 in early 2021.

    The global oil market is currently shifting into a bullish mood underpinned by many bullish influences.

    The first is China’s robust rebound and record-breaking crude oil imports. The second is growing indications that global oil inventories have already declined by 300 million barrels in the first half of 2020 and are projected to decline further by 250-300 million barrels between September and December.

    A third influence is a growing likelihood that vaccines will become widely available soon with the Russian vaccine being used to inoculate the Russian people in October.

    A fourth influence is the steep decline in US oil production by an estimated 6.5 million barrels a day (mbd) or 50% so far this year as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    When one considers all these factors and add them to OPEC+ production cuts of 7.7 mbd, one could then tell why oil prices are on an upward trend.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London

Leave a comment




EXXON Mobil -0.35
Open57.81 Trading Vol.6.96M Previous Vol.241.7B
BUY 57.15
Sell 57.00
Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News