Bottom Line: Another major gas find offshore Mozambique bodes well for Anadarko and sees share prices rally
Analysis: Anadarko Petroleum Corporation operates the Rovumal block in area 1 of Mozambique’s offshore Rovuma Basin. The discovery was at the Orca-1 well, which hit about 190 net feet of natural gas pay in the Paleocene fan system. Anadarko has a 36.5% interest in the block, with Mitsul E&P Mozambique holding 20%, PTT Exploration & Production Plc holding 8.5% and Videocon Hydrocarbon Holdings (Videocon Mozambique) and BPRL Ventures Mozambique holding a 10% stake. Shares of Videocon rose 3.21% on news of the discovery. But both Anadarko and India-based Videocon are putting up a total of 20% shares on this hot asset up for sale—and it’s worth about $4.5 billion.
Mozambique has only explored a fraction of its potential; yet enough gas has already been discovered to supply half of Western Europe for nearly a decade and a half. The government estimates there may be another 150 trillion cubic feet left to discover. Gas exports are expected to begin in 2018.
Mozambique will hold its next auction In the first quarter of 2013, with some 12 new oil and gas exploration blocks up for grabs. The majors are largely eyeing 130 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Rovuma basin, discovered by Anadarko (US) and Eni (Italy). Shell, ExxonMobil and Chevron are eyeing this as well.
With discoveries clearly not a problem, the challenge will be infrastructure to get the extracted gas onshore and then to refine and export. The country will need at least $20 billion to get this going.
Recommendation: Who’s likely to buy the Anadarko/Videocon stakes in Rovuma? Shell or Exxon, but a number of Asian companies have also expressed interest. It’s a good time to buy Videocon and Anadarko, though the former’s value will be most noticeably affected with the auction of its Rovuma stakes and the latest discovery.