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Get Ready For The Energy Price Shock

Gas

Natural gas supply concerns continue to feed fears and push futures higher. As of Wednesday, the October Nymex contract was trading up over 17 cents, and Europe is in focus. 

Natural gas prices in Europe continue to rise, and U.S. prices are rallying around this, as well, responding both to European price jumps and concerns about storage capacity on both sides of the Atlantic.

Year-to-date, the key benchmark price in Europe—the Title Transfer Facility (TTF, a Dutch virtual hub)—has shown an increase of 245% and a YOY increase of an astounding 520%, based on the latest data shared by Standard Chartered. 

 LNG exports aren’t ready to step in to do anything about it. 

We have now reached a point where Americans might have to adjust their geopolitical thinking about Russia’s Gazprom-led Nordstream 2 pipeline. This is precisely where geopolitics hits the pocketbook—but not in the way that fits into the American narrative against Nordstream and the political leverage that could give Putin over Europe. 

Even a regularly cold winter in Europe will send prices--which shot up another 10% just on Wednesday--soaring much further. Anything slightly colder than the norm will be a price shock of new proportions. 

Another factor is Nord Stream itself. Prices jumped again Monday partly in response to news that it could take four months to clear Nord Stream for operations. Immediately prior to that,…





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